Posted tagged ‘nuclear bomb size’

Will I survive a nuke? Assessing the risk

April 4, 2008

I live and work near a known terrorist target so I’m anxious to answer the question: Will I survive a nuclear blast just three miles from ground zero?

I’m not a nuclear scientist or a ballistics expert or military strategist, but I’m surfing the web looking for those guys. This exercise is more back-of-the-napkin than doctorial thesis as I don’t think even a room full of Noble laureates could guarantee an answer. I’m simply looking at probabilities to help me define my risk.

In the next post I estimate the most likely bomb size.

In the post that follows the next post I’ll get started on estimating the risk of death and injury from both the blast and the radiation. I’ll come to a partial conclusion but there are many variables to check so I’ll be fleshing out this answer over time.

Eventually, I’ll look into the probability of an attack, weighing the specific risk to my local target, which will help me decide if I should move to safer ground. Even if I can survive a nuke in good health, I have no doubt that the post-apocalyptic quality of life will suck for a long, long time, so that too will affect my decision to stay or split. I’ll also consider the possibility that a nuclear attack anywhere in the U.S. may create a nationwide syndrome of fear of future attacks.

If you live or work near a target and want to assess your risk, sorry to be glib but I believe a nuke is most likely to explode during business hours, 9AM to 5PM. Not only will there be maximum amounts of people near the target, the most likely bombers are media savvy and want good press coverage. Planning for a potential nuke attack needs to consider both work and home, but the emphasis should probably be on where you work.

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