Before I make the decision to start nuclear survival preparations—and, perhaps, make lifestyle changes–I need to know: What’s the probability of a nuke attack on U.S. soil? Many people have qualitative opinions but I’ve found little quantitative analysis. Perhaps the risk can’t be calculated; or perhaps the numbers have been crunched and classified, I don’t [...]
Archive for the ‘Probability’ category
The likelihood of a nuclear attack on U.S. soil – part 1
June 18, 2008Warren Buffet on a nuclear “incident” – part 2
May 8, 2008I’m researching the probability of a nuke attack and I want to revisit my post of 1/21/08 regarding Warren Buffet’s remark that a nuclear incident on U.S. soil is a “virtual certainty.” According to a footnote on page two of a paper by political scientist John Mueller (pdf file), who argues the risk of an [...]
Three miles from a 10 kiloton nuke – will I live or die?
April 6, 2008In the prior post I explained why I’m planning for a bomb size of 10 kilotons. Now I’ll look at the risks from the blast and radiation. While I believe I have a chance of sustaining no injuries or only minor scathing from the affects of the blast, there are many variables to consider and [...]
Will I survive a nuke? Estimating what size nuke to plan for
April 5, 2008I want to know if I’ll survive a nuclear blast just three miles from ground zero. The first step is to estimate the size of the bomb that would most likely be used in an attack. Disclaimer to Self: If I’m wrong about my conclusion, i.e., if a larger bomb is used, well, I could [...]
Will I survive a nuke? Assessing the risk
April 4, 2008I live and work near a known terrorist target so I’m anxious to answer the question: Will I survive a nuclear blast just three miles from ground zero? I’m not a nuclear scientist or a ballistics expert or military strategist, but I’m surfing the web looking for those guys. This exercise is more back-of-the-napkin than [...]
Warren Buffet on Nuclear Bombs
January 21, 2008[Go to a 5/8/08 UPDATE on this post] “It’s inevitable.” A quote by Warren Buffet. This is old news but worth reviewing to get it in the record of this blog. It’s important because if I needed just one person to make the case that a nuclear attack on U.S. soil was a slam-dunk, it [...]
Journalist Paul L. Williams talks about an ‘American Hiroshima’
December 11, 2007My post of 10/25/07 (“How much is that nuclear bomb in the window?”) mentions award winning journalist Paul L Williams. He has a large body of work documenting attempts by terrorist groups to obtain enriched uranium and nuclear weapons and their conviction to use them. He was interviewed on 11/28/07 on a radio show called [...]
‘…widespread panic, chaos and death is inevitable and will happen soon…’
December 6, 2007When it comes to nuclear weapons, Iran still gets all the headlines. They cancelled their nuke program…blah blah…I get it. But google for the “International Conference on Illicit Nuclear Trafficking,” a meeting just two weeks ago, and there’s virtually no press. If you follow the last link in my post of 11/30/07 (“Nuclear Terrorism News”) [...]
Nuclear Terrorism News
November 30, 2007I’m still debating (with myself) on content for this blog. The issue this week is whether to blog about news items. I think news about nuclear weapons is relevant as it relates to the probability of an attack. But if I mention an incident and link to it, chances are, unless you’re a news junkie, [...]
Nuclear Weapons in the Wrong Hands
November 8, 2007Two separate pieces of news: With the current upheaval in Pakistan, the fate of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons is in the news (msnbc.msn.com). The fear is that forces sympathetic to al Qaeda could accomplish a “nuclear coup.” Pakistan is believed to have 30 to 45 nuclear weapons. A dirty bomb, aka radiological dispersal device (RDD), could [...]
