Polls:
• Jenkins, 180 respondents, 10% chance in ten years someplace in the world of a Nuke.
• 29 percent – Harvard Professor likelihood in ten years.
• State Department – Int’l Security Experts – 29% in ten years.
• Terrorists today are able to do this.

Effects:
• Ten kilotons – is the size of what was dropped on Hiroshima
o Ten kilotons would obliterate several city blocks. Ten kiloton – Radioactive fallout contaminates a 500-km area, prohibiting residence for 10-20 years.
o Half mile radius is destroyed. 2.5 miles massive burns and inferno. 9-14 miles away, 50% die from acute radiation poisoning.
o Chicago would be 300K deaths.
o A 10 kt explosion would result in complete structural destruction up to ¾ of a mile from ground zero. Fires and lethal radiation would be felt up to 1 mile from ground zero. Radiation fallout from debris clouds will be seen, depending on wind variables, for several miles from ground zero.
o Natl’ Geographic Video: One mile in any direction destroyed.
o A few kilometers die instantly, within five kilometers die within 24h (chart below for London and Mumbai).
o Midtown Manhattan: A ten kiloton weapon detonated in Times Square would devastate much of midtown Manhattan, including the theater district, Grand Central Station, Rockefeller Center, Carnegie Hall, the Empire State Building and Madison Square Garden.
o Wall Street: Had the 9/11 terrorists detonated a nuclear weapon instead of crashing airplanes into the World Trade Center, Lower Manhattan and the entire financial district would have been reduced to ash and rubble, according to former Senator Nunn, head of the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
o Within a two-mile diameter circle of a nuclear detonation – a distance the length of the Washington Mall – little could be done.
o a RAND study, which says the zone of 100% mortality is about a radius of three quarters of a mile: “For a 10-kiloton airburst, everyone will be killed by lethal doses of flash radiation to a distance of 0.7 miles.” This is from the RAND Corporation’s Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy, page four of a report titled, “Considering the Effects of a Catastrophic Terrorist Attack.”